Reverend Bayes, meet Process Safety
Use Bayes’ Theorem to establish site specific confidence in your LOPA calculation

by Dave Grattan PE, CFSE & Keith Brumbaugh PE, CFSE

Bayes’ Theorem is sorely missing from the toolbox of Process Safety practitioners. This paper will introduce Bayes’ Theorem to the reader and discuss the reasons and applications for using Bayes in Process Safety related to IPLs and LOPA. While intended to be introductory (to not discourage potential users), this paper will describe simple ExcelTM based Bayesian calculations that the practitioner can begin to use immediately to address issues such as uncertainty, establishing confidence intervals, properly evaluating LOPA gaps, and incorporating site specific data, all related to IPLs and barriers used to meet LOPA targets.

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